Investment Case
Nigeria has the demand, the policy and now the financing architecture for a generation of privately built power. This is the data behind that case, and where Nova sits within it.
The gap
Nigeria’s constraint is not installed capacity, it is usable capacity. Nameplate generation sits near 13.5 GW, but plant availability runs at barely a third of that, leaving roughly 5 GW reaching homes and businesses. Delivering a dependable 15 GW means roughly tripling what actually reaches the meter.
Gigawatts · installed vs available vs target
Installed and available capacity per NERC operational data, 2026; 15 GW is the stated federal target. The orange bar is the binding constraint, what is actually available, not what is installed.
The shift
Today the renewable share of generation is about 25%, almost entirely legacy hydropower, with solar and wind under 0.1%. The national “30-30-30” target aims for 30 GW of capacity by 2030 with 30% renewable. Solar carries essentially all of that new growth.
Share of the electricity mix
What the 30% means: the “30-30-30” goal targets 30% of renewable capacity by 2030 (~9 GW of 30 GW) — roughly 2.5 GW of existing hydro plus ~6.5 GW of new solar and wind. Because solar runs at a lower capacity factor, that is around 20% of generation, shown above. Either way, the entire increment is solar, and that is what Nova builds.
Today’s mix from Nigeria generation data (IRENA), 2023, the latest available. The 2030 outlook reflects the “30-30-30” goal of 30% renewable capacity (~9 GW), which independent modelling translates to roughly 20% of generation. The Renewable Energy Master Plan separately targets 36%. Solar carries the growth in every case.
The capital
The Minister of Power puts the sector’s need at over $100 billion: about $30 billion to add 20,000 MW of generation, $20 billion for transmission, and around $47 billion for distribution and gas. The longer Energy Transition Plan implies roughly $410 billion of incremental funding to 2060, about $10 billion a year. The renewable slice of that, modelled against the 30% target, looks like this.
Scenario · cumulative new capacity and capital, 1 / 3 / 5 years
Illustrative scenario by Nova, anchored to the 30% renewable target (9 GW by 2030) and the ETP’s 5.3 GW-a-year solar ambition, at a ~$1.0–1.3m per MW benchmark for solar plus enabling capex. Not a forecast.
The economics
The case for renewables and embedded power in Nigeria does not rest on subsidy. It rests on displacing diesel, which businesses already buy at several times the cost of solar. This is the most important chart for an investor: the alternative is the incumbent, and it is expensive.
US$ per kWh, Nigeria, 2026
Diesel, petrol and Band A figures from published Nigerian tariff and generation-cost data, 2026 (₦607, ₦421 and ₦209.50/kWh respectively). Solar is a utility / embedded benchmark. Diesel is the incumbent Nova displaces; solar is the alternative.
A proven, funded category
African commercial-and-industrial and embedded power has become a fundable asset class with blue-chip backers and realised exits. Nova operates squarely within it.
In 2022 Shell acquired Daystar Power, a Nigerian-founded C&I solar developer, its first power acquisition anywhere in Africa. A clean strategic exit for the category.
A ~$700m awarded portfolio, ~560 MW plus 695 MWh of storage across 20-plus African countries, financed at platform level.
A $495m portfolio-level guarantee covering currency-inconvertibility and transfer risk, the structural answer to the FX question investors ask first.
Up to $300m of senior debt arranged for C&I renewables across Africa, alongside IFC, Norfund and EAAIF equity. Commercial and development capital, side by side.
Sources: company and DFI disclosures, 2022–2026. Illustrative of the category Nova operates in; not transactions involving Nova.
How it gets financed
What holds back scale
Every constraint below is also a reason the operators who solve it are hard to replicate.
Built for institutional capital
Investment at institutional scale runs through rigorous due diligence. Nova engages investors through a structured process built around the elements below.